Edition 480 – Electoral Impact

Written by Dean Robinson.

I’ve long held the belief that Federal Elections adversely impact small and family businesses. It’s talked about in the media, but never truly at the micro level – that is, how it works inside of an individual business. Until now!

The beauty of some of the work we undertake with our clients, is how close we are to the numbers. And, in one business we work with, the results were almost mind blowing.

Scenario 1

In the period 1st April, 2025 to 5th June, 2025, revenue was up 19.8% over the comparative period, the prior year (i.e 1st April, 2024 to 5th June, 2024)
Of that 19.8% increase, 19.3% of it occurred in the period 5th May, 2025 to 5th June, 2025.
What’s the significance of the dates? The most recent Federal Election was held on 3rd May, 2025 – so the 5th was the Monday afterwards.
This means that 97% of the increase in the revenue occurred after the Federal Election, once the result was known, and once we Australians knew there would be a majority government, not a hung parliament, as had been anticipated prior to election day.
So, a revenue upswing, once the election was over.

Scenario 2

In the month of May 2022, revenue was down 10.4% over the period of May 2021. What’s the reason? Well, the big thing that month, was that a Federal Election was held on 21st May, 2022 – almost towards the back end of the month.
That election saw the Albanese Government take power, and the Morrison Government lose office, with a majority of one seat. So, a tight finish, but a change of Government, after 9 years, nonetheless.
So, a revenue drop, in a month where the election was held late in that month.

Scenario 3

In the month of May 2019, revenue was down 13.1% over the month of May 2018. May 18th was that year’s Federal Election, the one that Scott Morrison won and claimed, in his victory speech “I always believe in miracles”. The Government was expected to lose that election, but they didn’t.
Again, another substantial revenue drop, over the prior year – month on month.

Three different elections. Three different, but similar, results, all from the same family business. What can be gleaned from this?

People’s mindsets around confidence and spending is absolutely impacted by federal election campaigns. The fact that the day after the election, nothing changes in the world other than a government has won or lost that election, seems to escape most people. But, it’s the perception of “uncertainty” that appears to be an overriding factor.
Most small and family businesses are unprepared for how a Federal Election campaign will impact their business. Clearly, more strategic planning needs to be countenanced, to avoid this in the future. Or, if not avoid, then certainly limit any effect.
Would this perception of uncertainty, which adversely impacts business, be different if Federal Elections were held on 4 years cycles, and not 3 year cycles?
Similarly, if Federal Elections were on fixed dates, each 3rd or 4th year (as they are in New South Wales for State elections), would this generate a different result, in terms of any impact on businesses, of election campaigns.

The people that should sit up and take notice of all of this, are the politicians, that make up the 150 members of the House of Representatives and the 76 Senators – along with everyone else vying for their seat. It’s their behaviours in an election campaign, and how they portray themselves and the opposing parties, that has a large impact on the person in the street, and the level of confidence those individuals have, that their lives, if not better off, then certainly won’t be any worse off, post election.

This Week’s Tip

“Check out your own numbers over comparative periods and see if it, too, is impacted by elections,
at either the state or federal level.”